Wednesday, September 2, 2009

[General] Ugly loot math

Apparently this is how the tier drops will work in Coliseum:

10-man normal drops nothing but triumph badges.
25-man normal drops trophy of the crusade, one per boss.
10-man heroic drops 1 trophy of the crusade per 10 attempts remaining on the try (up to 4, apparently)
25-man heroic drop...some amount of regalia per x attempts. Here's my guess on it: in 10 man it drops 4 at the max level. That is one every 12 1/2 attempts. But more importantly, it's scalable to 25 man. 4 items per 10 players scales to 10 items per 25.

Do I think they'll do it quite that way? Yeah, actually, I do.

Let's assume for a second that your guild is the best guild ever, and that you are downing the heroic trial of the grand crusader on 25-man without wiping every single week. This means that you will, at best, get 10 tier tokens per week. You'll also get 14 trophy of the crusade tokens per week (because of course you don't wipe on the 10-man heroic tries either, and do those twice per 25 group)

This means that if you have only 25 raiders, you will need 10 perfect runs to get everyone 4 pieces of that tier gear. This would be a bit less than 2 1/2 months of time, and assumes you're doing it from the onset and that you're getting exactly the right token frequency for your raid.

So what does this actually mean? It means that the best guilds will be geared out in 4pT9.258 as Icecrown is about to be available, assuming that Icecrown is going to come out in 4 months time - which would mean the coliseum will last until the end of the year. It might come out sooner; that would mean that 3.2 would be live for 5 months, and 5 months for the coliseum + onyxia is a fairly long time without significant raiding. I'd honestly expect it to come out a bit sooner than that. But for argument's sake, we'll say 4 months at most.

Now what if you're not a stellar guild? What's the going rate between "Ensidia pwns this" and 'most guilds pwn this'? Well, let's take Yogg. Yogg normal mode took Ensidia 3 days to down (on April 16th). It took Fire & Blood until May 23rd. So F&B would be looking at something like a month from now, give or take, to down heroic Anub' - and that wouldn't be perfect attempts, of course. It'd be even longer to get the Insanity tribute. So we'll say on average F&B-like guilds will get about 20 attempts left, and start a month later.

That means that (if it scales linearly) F&B will see approximately 3 months worth of regalias, and we'll be generous and give them an average of 6 per kill over the lifetime. That's 13 weeks, 6 per week, 78 total. Assuming perfect drops, we're looking at at most 3 tier pieces per player.

What does that mean? It means that if you're a class that desperately wants your 4 piece, you should start figuring out what the best two pieces of 245 gear are that you can get and then go for them. If you're not a class that cares as much (for example: ferals) you should concentrate on getting your off-tier pieces when they drop and getting tier tokens when it makes sense to do so.

Now, here's an interesting observation: for ferals, there's nothing all that competitive in the shoulder or head slots. There is good gear in the legs and chest slot, and interesting gear in the glove slot if you're mostly DPS. So it might work out...mostly.

But in general, I would count on getting two pieces of T9.258 gear at most unless you're significantly progressed or your loot rules favor (your class/spec) for whatever reason. Plan accordingly.


Dorgol said...

Amusingly enough, despite the fact that Holy Paladin 4pc bonus is absolutely awesome - I don't expect to see more than 1 piece.

For my raids we are giving out the Trophies to players who have enough Triumph tokens to buy a piece ASAP. This makes perfect sense as it is better to get the gear added to the raid ASAP.

For me, though, it means I still don't have enough Triumph badges for my first piece. I don't get to run the dialy every day. I don't run the 10 man. So while I'm sitting at 44 Triumph, other people in my guild already have one piece of T9 and nearly enough Triumph for a 2nd piece. :)

Kalon said...

Hey, Dorgol - it does make sense, but it's also unfortunate for precisely the reasons you say. Still, I think once you start running the heroic version more you're going to get a lot more chances at it; as soon as you can do the normal and the heroic in one reset that'll be 30 badges, right there. Even without doing anything else, that's enough for 2 pieces of the most expensive parts within 5 weeks. And there's going to be tons rolling around, especially if y'all do 10mans. People won't want them soon enough.

So I would imagine you'll get the 4 piece if you want; the question is whether it's worth it to have 4pT8 at 245 level vs. the offset pieces at 258.

Copey said...

You forgot the 3rd part Kalon: “And if you are in a “WTF, you guys haven’t downed Yogg yet?” guild…”

You know, it’s funny, but lately I’ve almost been celebrating the crappy set bonuses on feral tank gear, as it is basically just allowing me to upgrade to the biggest upgrade I can personally get with out having to worry too much if/when I lose my set bonus. I went from full 5pc T7.5 to a mix match of 6 pieces of conquest/triumph badge gear since 3.2 dropped. Last week in Uld 10, a vanquisher chest token fell, and I was the only person who could equip it, so I took it. And I’ve already got a better off set piece. It’s weird to down bosses my guild has never downed before, and few people need the loot anymore. At least we are having fun seeing the content.

runycat said...

This post essentially confirmed what I've been thinking about the past few weeks, in which I've seen a very small amount of trophies drop. I find it strange, actually, that we're practically drowning in gear right now but that it's actually somewhat difficult to procure the decent tier gear.

I'm reminded of how long it took me to fill out my T2 back in the day, as I waited my turn behind raiders with far more seniority than I (even though back then, progression itself took far longer than it does today.)

Anonymous said...

Its just so frustrating to see people who have no idea how to run an instance flying through them. I enjoy this gave because it is hard, was. You have to know exactly what happens and when or you die. I am seeing way over-geared people in heroics running around like it’s Oktoberfest and they are drunk on the power of their own gear. They don’t pull bosses correctly, they don’t mark they just spam AoEs and heals like there aren’t de-curses or poisons to abolish or cleanz. Gear has become worthless and in a since in the past few weeks so have the pugs. I think I am gonna try to run with the Guild only for a while.

Anonymous said...

my typing sucked there... Game for 'gave' and Sense for 'since' sorry

Kalon said...

Heh, Copey - if you're in that situation, I think you'll be in okay shape. Yogg is significantly harder than any normal fight in Ulduar, and a bit harder than the hard modes. Plus the hard modes appear to be able to be easily overgearable; Yogg just required a lot of training and timing. You should be able to breeze through normal ToC fine, do the heroic 10-mans fine, and then get plenty of trophies a week.

And you're absolutely right about the crappy bonuses. There's no compelling reason to get the 4piece as a bear, and that makes gearing that much more flexible. Feel free to basically ignore most of the slot pieces; I would go for the gloves first simply because there is not a good upgrade to them, and then either the shoulders or the head depending on your priorities. But chest and legs? Offset, baby!

Runy, I think you'll find it'll be going much quicker here soon; I don't honestly foresee Anub'arak lasting particularly long. It's not going to be such a blocking fight like Mimiron was, and even if it takes a few weeks you're still getting tons of heroic gear. By the time you get to your tier tokens, you'll be able to get them fast, I think.

Gargen - I do and I don't agree with you. I do wish that heroics required some more skill, especially if there were some that were really hard and some that weren't. I miss CC in instances. I miss careful pulling. I know I radically overgear the things, but it's ridiculous how sloppy people are. I miss heroics being a training wheel for raiding. That doesn't mean people can't be trained, but it does mean heroics aren't a good gauge of anything. Perhaps with Icecrown we'll get another MrT level 5-man.

Mittnacht said...


Did you intentionally omit the 10-man version of Endurance of the Infernal? Is it really ranked below all those other necks?


Kalon said...

Oops, I missed that Mittnacht. I'll go edit the post, but it's slightly better than Collar of ceaseless torment and boundless ambition.

Kalon said...

Actually, I take that back. I didn't leave it out. The problem is that simply, it doesn't have armor or agility on it. With the way things are hitting in hard modes, armor is king on this. It may change if you're lower on expertise, and it's probably not a horrible pick if you want a bit more stam, but it's not great.